Game of Power: An Epidemiological Analysis of 330 Leaders’Death

< strong > Writing | Wang Han

LI Ting (School of Society and Population, Renmin University of China).

Longxiuchen (School of Society and Population, Renmin University of China).

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On April 14, 2019 (North American time), the magic epic drama “Game of Power” ushered in the final season, and the smoke of eight years in Westeros was about to disappear. Game of Power (< EM > The Game of Thrones ) is a TV series adapted from George R. R. Martin’s novel Song of Ice and Fire (< EM > A Song of Ice and Fire) by HBO Company of the United States. At the end of last year, several foreign colleagues wrote an academic paper-style “alternative film review” while enjoying the exquisite production of TV dramas.

On Dec. 10, 2018, two < strong > power (science) < strong > Travel (learning) < strong > fans (home) < strong > Reidar Lystad and Benjamin Brown from Macquarie University, Australia, focused on the death and sum of 330 main characters in the 1-7 seasons since the launch of The Game of Power through their own hard and persistent research (drama). Distribution of causes of death (thanks to Lord Martin for making such a large death sample), and the main influencing factors conducted a “systematic and scientific epidemiological analysis”. The study was published in the Journal of Epidemiology < EM > Injury Epidemiology.

It is the lifelong pursuit of many researchers that < strong > can also publish papers.

The data collection is mainly completed by two authors through watching the film records, and referring to the relevant information from Wikipedia and the Film Database (IMDb) contributed by enthusiastic netizens. Because of the analysis of death events, the classical survival analysis (event history analysis) in demography is naturally the “benevolent” choice.

In the analysis, the most important variable is the survival time of the main characters in the play, which is defined by the author as “by the seventh season, the time from the first appearance of the characters to the death or the time of their continued survival (such characters are still alive, and are deleted in the cause of death analysis)”. In addition, variables such as gender, role importance, occupation, social stratum, religious belief, the regime to which the < strong > main role belongs, and whether or not it is abdicated are introduced into the analytical framework. Among them, the importance of roles is a very interesting grade constructed by the author.

Specifically, the method of calculating the importance of roles is as follows:

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On the basis of this calculation, the importance of 330 main characters in the play can be divided into three levels: strong > low (111 people), strong > medium (128 people) and strong > high (91 people). Statistical analysis showed that among 330 main characters, 71.8% were male, 68.5% were of low birth, and 59.4% of the characters were engaged in low social status occupations.

By the end of the seventh season, 186 (56.4%) of the above-mentioned persons had died. The top three causes of death were < strong > injuries (73.7%, including fatal injuries such as war), < strong > fires (11.8%) and < strong > poisoning (4.8%). Of the above-mentioned dead persons, the vast majority died of war and execution, and only two died of natural causes. 。

In addition, the author also made a detailed statistical analysis of the specific types and locations of fatal injuries . For example, 29.3% of the main characters died of knife injuries and 13.4% died of open wounds in multiple parts of the body.

img src=”https://pic3.zhimg.com/v2-45f41a77ce6aa5b46cbac23ac94b1b36_b.jpg”>figure>

The eighth season is over a month away, and Martin is safe.

According to the author’s statistics, up to the seventh season, the main characters in “Strong > Quan You” live for 11 seconds to 57 hours and 15 minutes. test veteran fans, who will hang up in 11 seconds and who will last for 57 hours? The probability of the characters appearing in the play and surviving (survival time) for one hour is 0.86 (95% confidence interval is 0.82-0.89). The results of survival analysis mainly show that the mortality rate of characters in the play is different in < strong > gender, social stratum, political power, and the importance of characters .

In terms of gender, the median survival time of < strong > males was significantly less than that of females (the mortality rate of females in 24.0 hours was 20% lower).

Figure 1 Distribution of Survival Probability for Different Sexes

From the perspective of social status, a person of noble origin is relatively humble and will live longer (median, 38.0 hours & gt; 19.1 hours, P< 0.001), while a person of humble origin has a 28% higher risk of death than an aristocratic class. (Watching a TV play also teaches us that poverty not only leads to poverty, but also to death.)

From the point of view of the regime, the defectors will survive significantly longer than the Loyalists (median, 55.2 hours & gt; 24.3 hours, P< 0.001), and the risk of death of the defectors is 65% lower. (I’m flexible, I’m the best.)

In addition, the different importance of roles will also have a significant impact on their survival time in the play (P< 0.001).

img src=”https://pic3.zhimg.com/v2-85c2be044859291716ee8a7267b24262_b.jpg”>figure>

Figure 2 Survival probability distribution of different social strata

Specifically, the mortality risk of < strong > moderately important roles was 6.58 times higher than that of unimportant roles. The risk of death was 2.55 times that of the unimportant role. That is to say, in Game of Power, the middle and important characters are the most sad because they bear the highest risk of death.

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Figure 3 Survival probability distribution of different role importance

Another study on “The Game of Power” (Suveen Angraal, 2018) found that the age of the characters had a significant impact on the survival probability of the characters, and that < strong > older characters had a higher risk of death than younger ones (P = 0.009).

In addition, people living in the South have a lower mortality rate than those living in the north, and members of university scholars have a lower mortality rate than members of seven families.

Generally speaking, Game of Power is a TV play characterized by high mortality of characters. This is why the fans of the right games will Tucao, this is a relentless “hero must die” TV drama.

As a well-produced TV play, Game of Power is closely related to Martin’s original song of ice and fire. Although TV plays are fictional characters and stories, the novelist once said that inspiration in the writing process was inspired by many important historical events, such as the Wars of the Roses in the 15th century.

In fact, Reidar and Benjamin’s research also proves that the high mortality rate of characters and the main line of the story in The Game of Power coincide with the basic law of historical development. The < strong > research shows that the mortality rate of human society shows a downward trend from the pre-industrial era to the modern society. From the mortality data of Britain, Japan, Ceylon and Chile, we can find the factual basis of this rule.

img src=”https://pic1.zhimg.com/v2-3ee96b6c54cc1c7ed60e6c0bef127540_b.jpg”>figure>

Figure 4 Population growth rates in Britain, Japan, Ceylon and Chile

In addition to the epidemiological changes mentioned in the process of mortality reduction, the transformation and reduction of < strong > violence and war also play an important role in the transformation of lethal diseases from epidemic infectious diseases to degenerative diseases.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the proportion of people killed by violence has been declining historically. In the former countries, 500 people died of violence per 100,000 people on average; in the Middle Ages, that number fell to 40, while in modern industrial societies, less than 10 people died of violence per 100,000 people.

What factors make human society regulate the use of violence and reduce mortality?

Steven Pinker (2011) believes that the main reasons for the decline in the lethality rate of war from ancient society to modern society are as follows: firstly, the emergence of a modern nation-state monopolizing the legitimate use of force , which will inhibit the use of violence and conquest; secondly, the emergence of a unified and centralized nation-state , which makes commercial activities possible. With large-scale expansion, business gradually takes precedence over conquest. The increase of the national population will lead to more powerful business development, while violence and death or interruption of business. In addition, rationality and knowledge increase makes a series of Enlightenment ideas widely disseminated (such as human rights, improving literacy, improving knowledge and rationality in problem solving and decision-making).

People pay more attention to the increase of human well-being than to war and violence.

Thus, looking back on the background of the story of The Game of Power, it is an era of the disintegration of the unified monarchy. War and fighting are the focus of people’s attention, and human rights and rationality are not yet popular ideas.

In such an environment, even the “halo of the protagonist” can not save the role’s survival, and high mortality is the inevitable outcome.

< strong > interaction:

Who will die and who will survive in the last season? Come on, give your predictions boldly!

< strong > References:

[1] Angraal, S., Bhatnagar, A., Verma, S., Shergill, S., Gupta, A., & amp; Khera, R. (2018). Risk Factors Associated with Mortality in Game of Thrones: A Longitudinal Cohort Study. arXiv: 1802.04161.

[2] Lystad, R. P.,& amp; Brown, B. T. (2018). “Death is certain, the time is not”: mortality and survival in Game of Thrones. Injury epidemiology, 5 (1), 44.

[3] Omran, A. R. (2005). The epidemiological transition: a theory of the epidemiology of population change. The Milbank Quarterly, 83 (4), 731-757.

[4] Pinker, S. (2011). The better angels of our nature: Why violence has declined (Vol. 75). New York: Viking.

[5] World Health Organization. Violence I NFO [Internet]. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2018. Available from: < span > http:/ .

Author’s Brief Introduction

Doctoral candidate in sociology, University of Saskatchewan, Canada < strong > Wang Han

The original title “See the Game of Power, Publish Academic Papers, Peak of Life” was first published in “Serious Demography Eight Diagrams” and “Intellectuals” was authorized to reproduce.

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